Odd Man Rush

I want to state for the record that as I start writing this, I have no idea how it will end.  I cheer for Texas; perhaps things will end up in my favor, but maybe not.

You’ve heard by now that the Big 12 South has quite the conundrum.  Three teams are 11-1, and only one can play in the title game.  How to decide?  The BCS will make that decision, and I’m with most people that say the conference should handle this situation in-house.  Here’s what they should look at to make a determination:

1. Head-to-head record and point spread

This is relatively simple.  Each one of the three has beaten one of the other two and lost to the other.  (Is this beginning to sound like one of those logic puzzles?)  A breakdown of each team:

Texas: beat Oklahoma on a neutral field by 10.  Lost to Tech on the road by 6.  Total differential: + 4.

Oklahoma: beat Tech at home by 44.  Lost to Texas on a neutral field by 10.  Total differential: + 34.

Tech: beat Texas at home by 6.  Lost to Oklahoma on the road by 44.  Total differential: – 38.

The winner: Oklahoma, with a caveat.  Texas’ win came on a neutral field, so this is closer than it seems.  In my mind, Tech is eliminated for getting blown out.  No team should be in a national championship game (and this situation seems to choose a de facto representative for the Big 12) if they have lost by, say, 21 points or more.  For the sake of argument, let’s see how they stack up from here on out.

2. Comparison of games vs. a common opponent

There are four teams that all three of these schools played: Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M.  Here’s how they fared:

Texas: beat Baylor at home by 24.  Beat Kansas on the road by 28.  Beat Oklahoma State at home by 4.  Beat Texas A&M at home by 40.

Oklahoma: beat Baylor on the road by 32.  Beat Kansas at home by 14.  Beat Oklahoma State on the road by 20.  Beat Texas A&M on the road by 38.

Tech: beat Baylor at home by 7.  Beat Kansas on the road by 42.  Beat Oklahoma State at home by 36.  Beat Texas A&M on the road by 18.  

This one comes out fairly even for all teams involved, although I think Oklahoma gets the edge because their closest game was still double digits.  

3. Non-conference schedule

Each team had a cupcake non-conference schedule.  The best team any of the teams played was Arkansas, and they turned out to have a losing record.  As long as the BCS continues to reward crappy scheduling by coaches, they will continue to play non-important games at the beginning of the season.  Ugh.

4. Each team’s offense/defense

Texas: Highest score: 56.  Lowest score: 28.  Highest score allowed: 35, by Oklahoma. Lowest score allowed: 7.

Oklahoma: Highest score: 66.  Lowest score: 35, twice; once versus Texas.  Highest score allowed: 45, by Texas.  Lowest score allowed: 2.  Scored 58+ points in each of the last 5 games.

Tech: Highest score: 63.  Lowest score: 21, versus Oklahoma.  Highest score allowed: 65, by Oklahoma.  Lowest score allowed: 7.

Again, Oklahoma is very impressive, while Texas holds an advantage over Tech.

Conclusion: Oklahoma should get the nod for the Big 12 Championship game.  A lot of Texas supporters (myself included) have touted the neutral field situation as a significant advantage, but I think this gets blown out of proportion.  This is a 3-team tie, but since Tech is the weaker of the three choices, a lot of arguments turn into a Texas vs. Oklahoma discussion.  Yes, Texas settled that one on the field, but the reason they’re tied is that Texas lost to a team they should have beaten and Oklahoma blew them out.  In a perfect system, Texas and Oklahoma would play each other once again to determine the conference champion, but I am convinced that a perfect system will never exist in college football.  In this case, Oklahoma is the better team on paper, and in college football, that’s good enough.