Odd Man Rush

Let’s start this off with an aside: If today weren’t Super Sunday, you’d see a post here about how the Stars are back in playoff contention.  That’s probably really good for the Stars, because nobody cares right now, so they can continue to fly under the radar.  Anyway, it is Super Sunday, and after two long weeks of pondering, I have decided that the Cardinals will win the Super Bowl.  Here’s why:

1. Arizona’s offense is elite, and Pittsburgh’s defense is overrated.

Yes, I am well aware of the fact that by almost any statistical measure, the Steelers had the number one defense in the NFL this year.  But look at the schedule:  The 6 intradivision matchups certainly helped pad the stats.  I don’t think anybody is going to mistake Cincinnati, Cleveland, or Baltimore for a good (or even decent) offensive team.  They also played Houston and Jacksonville.  Same drill.  Borderline offensive teams they played include San Diego, Washington, Dallas, and Philadelphia (they lost that game).  That leaves the New York Giants, New England, Indianapolis and Tennessee.  Indianapolis shouldn’t even count, because they had absolutely no running game this year, but Pittsburgh lost anyway.  The Giants and the Titans both exposed the Steel Curtain.  The only exception is New England, and you have to bow down to that defensive performance, but 1 great game is worthy of all the praise they’re getting in the media?

On the other side, the Arizona offense has come alive.  The fact that they have found their running game and will be able to balance their playcalling is going to cause some problems.  The common denominator among all the teams that beat Pittsburgh this year is that they all have a solid passing game.  If Arizona can establish the run and Troy Polamalu starts sneaking up into the box, Kurt Warner will be able to carve up the secondary.

2. Ben Roethlisberger is a liability, and Ken Whisenhunt is his old Offensive Coordinator.  

I don’t think enough has been made of this.  In Super Bowl XL, Roethlisberger was terrible.  The winning touchdown pass was thrown by the wide receiver.  A lot has been made of Big Ben’s "legacy" because he did win that Super Bowl, but he’s been nothing but a game manager since he arrived.  This year, he hasn’t even done a great job of that, throwing barely more touchdowns than interceptions.  Of the 16 starting quarterbacks in the AFC, Ben finished 12th in quarterback rating, just ahead of JaMarcus Russell and behind such phenoms as Joe Flacco and Trent Edwards.  (By the way, just to bolster my "Pitt’s defense stats are juiced because of their division" argument, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Derek Anderson were 15 and 16.)  If you don’t think Ken Whisenhunt knows how to get to Ben Roethlisberger, think again.  While we’re on the subject, the offensive line of the Steelers allowed the second-most sacks this year.  If the Cardinals turn this game into a shootout, their underrated front seven will pin their ears back and get to Ben.

3. The Cardinals are hungrier than the Steelers.

There’s no way that anybody could possibly know this, but look at the situation: A young, up-and-coming team coached by the guy who got passed over for the Pittsburgh and led by a quarterback whose last taste of the Super Bowl was very bitter (and whose Hall of Fame status is almost assured with a win) is pitted as an underdog against an established team that played a fairly easy schedule this time around and acts like they’re going to win handily.  In every interview I’ve seen or heard with a Pittsburgh player who played for them 3 years ago, they talk about how satisfying it was to win.  Teams that win the Super Bowl aren’t focused on how satisfying it will be to hold up the trophy; they focus on the work it will take to get there.  I’ve heard nothing but that from Cardinals players.

I know this is an intangible category, but the intangibles always come into play in the Super Bowl.  The game is so big that they have to.  Ultimately, I believe this game comes down to the will of the two teams, and from what I’ve seen, the Cardinals want and need it more.  Arizona 29, Pittsburgh 23.